Was it worth it for Russia to invade Ukraine, considering all impacts holistically two and a half years later?
Russia’s inflation is 35%, the national wealth fund is empty, no money to pay soldiers, Soviet weapon stockpiles finished, a million of maimed and killed, and after Ukraine began striking deep into the Russian territory, the people — even in Siberia — are getting worried that the war can come to their own homes.
In 2.5 years, nothing is going to Putin’s plan.
- Russia failed to take Kyiv and was defeated at Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv.
- Russia lost at least 200,000 KIA, 20,000 combat vehicles.
- At least 9 Russian generals killed.
- Bottomless Soviet-era stockpiles of weapons exhausted, and now Russia has to beg Iran and North Korea for munitions and missiles.
- Russia had to announce mobilization — 1st time after WW2.
- Black Sea fleet decimated, including the flagship ‘Moskva’.
- Russia expended 10,000 missiles and failed to destroy Ukraine’s power grid, which Putin himself admitted was the goal.
- Russia’s oil industry is getting severe blow because of Ukrainian strikes.
- Multiple oil depots and ammo depots obliterated.
- After nearly 3 years of total war, Russia couldn’t occupy a single regional city (3 regional cities were occupied by Russia in 2014).
- Ukraine still controls 80% of its territory.
- NATO added 1,300 km on Russia’s border, after Finland and Sweden joined the alliance. Missiles can now reach Putin’s residence in Valdai (between St. Petersburg and Moscow) even faster.
- Ukraine acquired advanced western weapons and air defence systems that exceed the Russian analogues.
- Russia lost lucrative European gas market and is losing oil markets.
- Nearly a million of young, educated Russians emigrated.
- Ukraine invaded the Kursk region of Russia 5 months ago, and Russia is unable to squeeze them out — despite bringing North Korean troops for help.
- Russia lost its bases in Syria and was unable to save the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
- Russian troops got kicked out of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan.
- Russian economy is in deep trouble due to sanctions and overheating, because of militarization of productive industries.
- Russia’s base interest rate by central bank is at 21%, home loans are at 30%, consumer loans at 40–50%.
- Russia’s reliance on China has greatly increased.
- Ukraine’s international weight skyrocketed.
- Russia’s military potential will take decades to restore.
- After nearly 3 years of total war, Russia is still stuck in Donbas.
Things are not going well for Vlad Putin.
Not going well at all.
